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Autor: Betwatch
Date: 2004-02-01 12:44:11
Topic: Africa
Cameroon, Nigeria, Senegal, Tunisia confirmed as favorites
Before the 3rd round of group matches, the four teams which went into the tournament as favorites are still the frontrunners in sportsbook odds.

Nigeria came back to join Tunisia, Cameroon, and Senegal as favorites to win the African Nations Cup
Their convincing result against South Africa made their quarter final qualification likely and gave them back their good position before the tournament.

Tunisia closed the gap to Cameroon a bit for the following reason:
Tunisia have only 3 knock out matches to win to gain the title.
Cameroon with their decisive last group encounter with Egypt have four. This means their probability value has to be multiplied with a decreasing factor
Anyway the lions are still slight favorites. Although the sportsbook services (and the shot as well) continue to think it is four times as likely one of the other teams will win the Cup


odds before odds after 1st match odds after 2nd match
Tunisia 6.5 5 5
Rwanda 251 251 251
Congo DR 41 101
Guinea 34 34 34
Cameroon 3.75 4 3.5
Egypt 13 11 21
Algeria 34 21 21
Zimbabwe 81 126
Senegal 4.5 6 5
Mali 26 13 8
Burkina Faso 51 51 251
Kenya 101 101
Morocco 11 7 7.5
Nigeria 5 7 6
Benin 251 401 251
South Africa 13 13 34
The probability development:

sportsbook sportsbook the-shot.com the-shot.com the-shot.com the-shot.com

before after 1st match after 2nd match before after 1st match after 2nd match
Tunisia 12.2% 15.6% 15.7% 11.8 12.9 14.0
Rwanda 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.3 0.2 0.2
Congo DR 1.9% 0.8%
3.3 1.9
Guinea 2.3% 2.3% 2.3% 2.1 2.9 5.2
Cameroon 21.2% 19.6% 22.4% 22.2 21.7 21.3
Egypt 6.1% 7.1% 3.7% 7.6 10.4 4.3
Algeria 2.3% 3.7% 3.7% 1.8 2.0 3.3
Zimbabwe 1.0% 0.6%
0.8 0.3
Senegal 17.7% 13.0% 15.7% 14.7 14.5 15.1
Mali 3.1% 6.0% 9.8% 6.2 6.5 8.5
Burkina Faso 1.6% 1.5% 0.3% 1.6 2.2 0.2
Kenya 0.8% 0.8%
0.6 0.3
Morocco 7.2% 11.2% 10.4% 5.0 8.5 9.6
Nigeria 15.9% 11.2% 13.1% 17.7 10.9 17.8
Benin 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.7 0.2 0.0
South Africa 6.1% 6.0% 2.3% 3.5 4.8 0.5





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