The-Shot.Net Writers Club - African World Cup qualifiers: the format discussion

A short summary:
The past: the last World Cup qualifiers had been played parallel to the African Nations Cup qualifiers. Preliminary rounds knock out rounds had excluded smaller nations, but many had found a berth in at least one of the two competitions. But for those involved in both competitions it had meant too many matches and growing difficulties with the clubs for the players and their availability for the National teams. Preparations had been difficult and costly for so many matches.
14 matches aggregated had to be played in the groups. The World Cup qualifiers comprised 8 of those because the groups consisted of 5 teams.
This led to some problems: With only one of the five teams to qualify, many teams were out of the race quickly and their performance very inconsistent. For example Senegal were facing a weakened Namibian squad on a final day which also had goal difference scenarios involved. Plus one team were idle on the last day, had a little disadvantage (in this case Morocco). More or less in some groups the results against smaller, inconsistent teams played a big role in the outcome.

The new international football calender with its limited dates for international matches made it necessary to change the format and cut down the number of matches for the parallel competitions, Nations Cup and world Cup qualifiers.
The first plan: CAF decided to use the Nations Cup 2006 to determine the five teams qualified for the World Cup at Germany. The four semi finalists and a fifth team should be qualified.
This plan seemed to have several advantages. It is similar to the way the participants at Youth competitions are determined. It produces tournament proved teams rather than those emerging from professional preparations for qualifiers and the Nations Cup releases all or most qualificants on a high. Too often World Cup qualified teams had come into a crisis, switching coaches or panicking after Nations Cup failures 5 months before the World Cup. Nigerias World Cup campaign self destruction in 2002 is only one example, Tunisia and South Africa reacted similarly.
But the plan had several disadvantages: Home field advantage and luck play a big role. In Tunisia 2004 North African teams dominated, Cameroon did not even reach the semi-final, because a direct encounter with Nigeria in the quarter finals meant only one of the two could qualify. In 2002 and 1998 Mali and Burkina Faso would have qualified because of home field advantage, North African teams had more difficulties with the West African atmosphere. Groups of death were drawn, meaning that only two of three big ones would progress even to the quarter final, in 2002 that was the case between Nigeria, South Africa, and Morocco.
Another point was money: TV rights for World Cup qualifiers are the most valuable, Nations Cup qualifiers which allow 15 teams to qualify are less intense.
Criticism grew rapidly.

A new suggestion was made public by Egyptian coaching legend El Gohary: Why not combine the old World Cup qualifiers with Nations Cup qualifiers. 5 groups of 5 teams, the winners going to the World Cup, the top three to the Nations Cup.
CAF decided to revert their decision, pick up the plan and change it: A preliminary knock out round to limit the field to 30 teams. 5 groups with 6 teams should now determine the 5 World Cup teams and 15 qualificants for the Nations Cup.
Again the plan seemed to lack deeper contemplation and quickly drew harsh criticism:
- the big size of the groups and number of matches invoked suggest that again the lower ranks will fail to finsih the competition with the amount of concentration they begin. But on the final day it will come down on goal difference in some aspect, either for the top or for the top three places.
- the group of death problem has not been solved: while troubled Nigeria were gifted again an easy ride, three of the teams with the brightest prospects were drawn into one group, Egypt, Cameroon, and Côte d'Ivoire.
- federations with good preparation infrastructure have even more the advantage, considering the high number of matches. This does not necessarily produce the teams with the best chances at a World Cup tournament, Tunisia might serve as an example here, seeming to reach their limits when confronted with similarly well organized teams. (Although it's a bit unfair to point them out, they do have a lot of quality anyway.)
- the most criticized point: the teams who lost the preliminary knock out match were left in the fog with two years without competition football, no revenues, no development, no consistency, etc.
- and: a marathon with qualification matches in the summer 2004 and summer 2005. Plus African Nations cup in January/February 2004 and 2006 (plus the collision with the Confederations Cup for Tunisia). Exhausted football stars with increasing numbers of injuries will leave Africa once again with hardly a chance to compete for the title.

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