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Posted on 2004-02-01 12:44:11 by Betwatch
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Topic: Africa Special: African Nations Cup 2004 > Previews
Cameroon, Nigeria, Senegal, Tunisia confirmed as favorites
Before the 3rd round of group matches, the four teams which went into the tournament as favorites are still the frontrunners in sportsbook odds.
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Nigeria came back to join Tunisia, Cameroon, and Senegal as favorites to win the African Nations Cup
Their convincing result against South Africa made their quarter final qualification likely and gave them back their good position before the tournament.
Tunisia closed the gap to Cameroon a bit for the following reason:
Tunisia have only 3 knock out matches to win to gain the title.
Cameroon with their decisive last group encounter with Egypt have four. This means their probability value has to be multiplied with a decreasing factor
Anyway the lions are still slight favorites. Although the sportsbook services (and the shot as well) continue to think it is four times as likely one of the other teams will win the Cup
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odds before |
odds after 1st match |
odds after 2nd match |
| Tunisia |
6.5 |
5 |
5 |
| Rwanda |
251 |
251 |
251 |
| Congo DR |
41 |
101 |
|
| Guinea |
34 |
34 |
34 |
| Cameroon |
3.75 |
4 |
3.5 |
| Egypt |
13 |
11 |
21 |
| Algeria |
34 |
21 |
21 |
| Zimbabwe |
81 |
126 |
|
| Senegal |
4.5 |
6 |
5 |
| Mali |
26 |
13 |
8 |
| Burkina Faso |
51 |
51 |
251 |
| Kenya |
101 |
101 |
|
| Morocco |
11 |
7 |
7.5 |
| Nigeria |
5 |
7 |
6 |
| Benin |
251 |
401 |
251 |
| South Africa |
13 |
13 |
34 |
The probability development:
|
sportsbook |
sportsbook |
the-shot.com |
the-shot.com |
the-shot.com |
the-shot.com |
|
before |
after 1st match |
after 2nd match |
before |
after 1st match |
after 2nd match |
| Tunisia |
12.2% |
15.6% |
15.7% |
11.8 |
12.9 |
14.0 |
| Rwanda |
0.3% |
0.3% |
0.3% |
0.3 |
0.2 |
0.2 |
| Congo DR |
1.9% |
0.8% |
|
3.3 |
1.9 |
|
| Guinea |
2.3% |
2.3% |
2.3% |
2.1 |
2.9 |
5.2 |
| Cameroon |
21.2% |
19.6% |
22.4% |
22.2 |
21.7 |
21.3 |
| Egypt |
6.1% |
7.1% |
3.7% |
7.6 |
10.4 |
4.3 |
| Algeria |
2.3% |
3.7% |
3.7% |
1.8 |
2.0 |
3.3 |
| Zimbabwe |
1.0% |
0.6% |
|
0.8 |
0.3 |
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| Senegal |
17.7% |
13.0% |
15.7% |
14.7 |
14.5 |
15.1 |
| Mali |
3.1% |
6.0% |
9.8% |
6.2 |
6.5 |
8.5 |
| Burkina Faso |
1.6% |
1.5% |
0.3% |
1.6 |
2.2 |
0.2 |
| Kenya |
0.8% |
0.8% |
|
0.6 |
0.3 |
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| Morocco |
7.2% |
11.2% |
10.4% |
5.0 |
8.5 |
9.6 |
| Nigeria |
15.9% |
11.2% |
13.1% |
17.7 |
10.9 |
17.8 |
| Benin |
0.3% |
0.2% |
0.3% |
0.7 |
0.2 |
0.0 |
| South Africa |
6.1% |
6.0% |
2.3% |
3.5 |
4.8 |
0.5 |
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