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Posted on 2004-01-19 18:25:09 by Betwatch
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Topic: Africa Special: African Nations Cup 2004 > Previews
Who will win the Cup - Here is the 'real experts' answer...
What is better than to ask the real experts of the game, the ones that risk their existance to earn money with predicting:
The sports betting companies.
Their initial odds are made up by the probability they assess to a particular result.
With a week to go before kickoff the-shot.com has taken the odds from four leading sportsbook services to find out which teams are thought to be strong favorites and by what relation is their strength compared to the outsiders.
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Sportsbook services know there is a probability value for each team to win the Nations Cup and derived from this, added a margin for their own risk and profit, they calculate the odds which get later influenced by the amount customars stake on particular bets and competitors offer to them.
In the table below you find the average odds, an asterisk ('*') to mark the ones which have the greatest differences between the values of four companies, and a percentage value.
This percentage value is derived from the odds and means the following:
for example 20% for Cameroon means that the probability for Cameroon to win the Cup is 0.20 or 20%.
In other words: If the cup was played a hundred times, Cameroon would win 20 times. we just don't know which of the 100 times will come out in the end.
Or in again other words: Cameroon would win only every fifth Cup.
You can make up other statements: In 2 of 3 cases either Cameroon, Nigeria, Tunisia, or Sengal wins. But it means as well that in every third cup, due to the assessment of the sportsbooks, neither of them would lift the trophy.
Remarkably seems that one of the four did not list Cameroon as number one favorite: they had Senegal in front!
Here is the list:
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average odds |
average ratings |
| Cameroon |
3.81 |
20.1% |
| Senegal |
4.13 |
18.7% |
| Nigeria |
5.25 |
14.7% |
| Tunesia |
6.38* |
12.6% |
| Morocco |
11.25 |
6.9% |
| Egypt |
12 |
6.6% |
| South Africa |
12.75* |
6.3% |
| Mali |
25.25* |
3.3% |
| Algeria |
34.5 |
2.2% |
| Congo DR |
36.25 |
2.1% |
| Burkina Faso |
47* |
1.8% |
| Guinea |
54.25* |
1.7% |
| Zimbabwe |
62.25* |
1.4% |
| Kenya |
102.25 |
0.8% |
| Benin |
201 |
0.4% |
| Rwanda |
213.5 |
0.4% |
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 Print Version Related Links:· News by Betwatch
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Re: Who will win the Cup - Here is the 'real experts' answer...
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