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Posted on 2004-01-28 13:37:45 by Betwatch
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Topic: Africa Special: African Nations Cup 2004 > Previews
Little effect of first round results
First round results have had only only little effect on the odds given by the sportsbook companies for winning the African Nations Cup. While the most favorites won their matches, the slips of Cameroon and Nigeria have not been seen as crucial damage to their chances.
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Remarkable is though, that, if you divide the field into the two halfs Group A/B and Group C/D, it is generally thought that C/D have the greater number of strong teams.
This is important as in the quarter finals those two halfs are seperated from each other, as the first two of A play the first two of B, and the same with C/D.
It means that the chances of the strong teams of the first half, f.e. Tunisia and Senegal, to win the tournament are helped by this.
You only have to imagine that there might be quarter finals like Cameroon - Nigeria, Nigeria - Egypt etc, which would eliminate at least one of the giants before they can get into the way of Tunisia or Senegal.
Nevertheless: In Korea / Japan 2002 Brazil were in the much more difficult half and won the cup anyway.
Because only few offer updated outright odds on the Nations Cup I have picked out one service for the comparison:
|
odds before |
odds after 1st match |
| Tunisia |
6.5 |
5 |
| Rwanda |
251 |
251 |
| Congo DR |
41 |
101 |
| Guinea |
34 |
34 |
| Cameroon |
3.75 |
4 |
| Egypt |
13 |
11 |
| Algeria |
34 |
21 |
| Zimbabwe |
81 |
126 |
| Senegal |
4.5 |
6 |
| Mali |
26 |
13 |
| Burkina Faso |
51 |
51 |
| Kenya |
101 |
101 |
| Morocco |
11 |
7 |
| Nigeria |
5 |
7 |
| Benin |
251 |
401 |
| South Africa |
13 |
13 |
and here are the derived probabilities for winning the Cup in percent:
|
sportsbook |
sportsbook |
the-shot.com |
the-shot.com |
|
before |
after 1st match |
before |
after 1st match |
| Tunisia |
12.2% |
15.9% |
11.8 |
12.9 |
| Rwanda |
0.3% |
0.3% |
0.3 |
0.2 |
| Congo DR |
1.9% |
0.8% |
3.3 |
1.9 |
| Guinea |
2.3% |
2.3% |
2.1 |
2.9 |
| Cameroon |
21.2% |
19.9% |
22.2 |
21.7 |
| Egypt |
6.1% |
7.2% |
7.6 |
10.4 |
| Algeria |
2.3% |
3.8% |
1.8 |
2.0 |
| Zimbabwe |
1.0% |
0.6% |
0.8 |
0.3 |
| Senegal |
17.7% |
13.2% |
14.7 |
14.5 |
| Mali |
3.1% |
6.1% |
6.2 |
6.5 |
| Burkina Faso |
1.6% |
1.6% |
1.6 |
2.2 |
| Kenya |
0.8% |
0.8% |
0.6 |
0.3 |
| Morocco |
7.2% |
11.3% |
5.0 |
8.5 |
| Nigeria |
15.9% |
11.3% |
17.7 |
10.9 |
| Benin |
0.3% |
0.2% |
0.7 |
0.2 |
| South Africa |
6.1% |
6.1% |
3.5 |
4.8 |
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